Saturday, February 17, 2007

Chinese horde menaces IPCC

The highly touted IPCC opinion that humanistic climate change is very (90%) likely masks a non-consensual reality. Seems there was a 5 hour debate behind the closed green doors before this compromise figure was settled on. The usual suspects wanted an even higher figure -- 99% or virtually certain. (While this no doubt accurately measures their conviction it does not reflect the dramatically divided science, but that is another story.)

The Chinese, who were massed at the border of sanity, wanted a simple likely, or 66%. This was the first time the Red Horde had appeared in numbers and the Greens, like the US Army in Korea, were unprepared for the onslaught. Hence the 5 hour battle.

What makes this little fight tantalizing is two facts. First, the Chinese have embarked on an aggressive campaign to become a scientific superpower. They have invested large portions of their new found coal-fired prosperity in this effort. In fact the Chinese are estimated to have 800,000 research workers on the ground, second only to the US's 1.2 million and well ahead of the Japanese 650,000. Numerous scientific journals have been overrun by squads and companies of Chinese authors. Several hosts of Chinese scholars who came to the US to study and stayed have returned to the Eastern Empire, at least part time. It is a grand parade and science is that much better for it.

Second, China recently announced that climate science would be a new focus of this great effort, a major stop on its long march to scientific supremacy. Given its IPCC troublemaking, dare we hope that Chinese climate science will take a more skeptical route? It would certainly fit with the Chinese passion for coal. It would also break the Green stranglehold on national science.

On the other hand the Russians tried this rocky route and wound up being bought off with the promise of untold billions for carbon credits (presently worthless but the EU is working on it). The Chinese have now said that they have not the money or technology to reduce emissions, but it is for sale of course.

All things considered this looks to be a strong field position for the Chinese. Threatening massive scientific skepticism while holding out for much money. Since the Green Barbarians have never had to retreat it could be a Clash of Titans. Stay tuned and enjoy the show.


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